Title:  Prediction model of regional orthodontic workforce needs, using Greece as an example

Abstract:  Aim To develop a theoretical aepidemiological model for the prediction of orthodontic workforce needs, based on regional orthodontic treatment need. Materials and methods Data were collected for the number of children between the ages of 8-11 years attending primary schools in Greece, within each regional division. Treatment need of the children was estimated using the Index of Orthodontic Treatment Need (IOTN). Demographics of practicing orthodontists in Greece were also collected. Based on the distribution of orthodontists and the number of children per region who would potentially receive orthodontic treatment (IOTN 3-5), the presence and distribution of orthodontic manpower was evaluated. Results Overall orthodontic manpower is sufficient for Greece’s needs with an excess of 55 orthodontists. Distribution however is not uniform, and this ranges from a large underrepresentation of orthodontists in the Ionian Islands (47% of those required) to an overrepresentation in the Attica region (183% of those required). Conclusion Based on the present theoretical model, Greece has an adequate overall orthodontic workforce for coverage of the population needs, but with large regional variations indicating that some regions have a surplus while others a shortage of orthodontists. The present model seems suitable for the calculation of regional orthodontic workforce coverage of a population.